12822 Encantadora #35 · San Diego, CA 92129

$431,033

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,654 sqft · Condo · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $261/sqft · 44% below area Est $774k · 44% under $493/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GORGEOUS DEED RESTRICTED AFFORDABLE HOME! PLEASE REVIEW ATTACHED DOCUMENTS! Minimum household size of 4. OTHER GUIDELINES AND RESTRICYIONS APPLY. This home is currently under construction and estimated to be completed by the end of Sep. 2026. Pictures are of the model and has the same footprint. BUT, this home will have a 1/2 bath on 1st floor, no bath on 2nd floor, no island in the kitchen. May view model #1 during business hours but do not engage the sales team, they are selling market priced homes only. MODEL HOURS: Mon-Tues-CLOSED, Weds 1-5PM, TH-SUN - 10-5PM. GORGEOUS DEED RESTRICTED AFFORDABLE HOME! Requires a minimum household size of 4.

Key facts

• $493 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $431k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $391k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $376k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.0% in San Diego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Poway Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #317 of 517 in CA (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Design 39 Campus (1,226 students, 6% FRL); Black Mountain Middle (1,129 students, 19% FRL); Mt. Carmel High (1,865 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($156k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $375,555 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $774,256
• List price: $431,033
• Delta: -44.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12859 Calle De Las Rosas	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (-2%)	1mo	$1,150,000	$713	67
13011 Avenida Grande	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-24%)	0mo	$1,053,000	$840	63
11855 Ramsdell Ct	1.27mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+1%)	1mo	$1,065,000	$636	62
10948 Ivy Hill Dr #7	1.17mi	3/2.5	1,568 (-5%)	1mo	$975,000	$622	56
12636 Springbrook Dr Unit E	1.09mi	3/3.0	1,492 (-10%)	0mo	$895,000	$600	46
11032 Twin Pond Ter	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,475 (-11%)	1mo	$1,175,000	$797	44
10962 Caminito Arcada	1.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,499 (-9%)	0mo	$1,149,900	$767	42
13845 Via Boltana	1.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,843 (+11%)	1mo	$1,000,000	$543	40
11087 Caminito Arcada	1.49mi	3/2.5	1,269 (-23%)	0mo	$950,000	$749	40
11149 Catarina Ln #82	0.98mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-23%)	1mo	$785,000	$620	37
12330 Creekview Dr #12330	0.93mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,273 (-23%)	0mo	$785,000	$617	35
10836 Everly Way	1.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,935 (+17%)	0mo	$1,150,000	$594	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-95,548
• Equity at exit: $64,268

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-119,868
• Equity at exit: $37,268

Cash invested: $120,689 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $824,000 ($498/sqft)
• Median days on market: 24 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -6.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92129

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,260
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$539 /mo · $6,465/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$493
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$821
• Net cashflow: $-383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,395

Max offer price $375,555

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-234	+0% $-383	+5% $-532	+10% $-681
Rent	-10% $-692	-5% $-538	+0% $-383	+5% $-229	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-166	-0.5pp $-274	base $-383	+0.5pp $-495	+1.0pp $-609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,758
• Closing costs: $12,931
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9993 Paseo Montril San Diego, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,795	$2.54	98d	1	0.28mi
9983 Paseo Montril San Diego, CA	2.0	2.5	1341	$3,350	$2.50	43d	1	0.29mi
9983 Paseo Montril San Diego, CA	2.0	2.5	1341	$3,350	$2.50	5d	1	0.29mi
9991 Paseo Montril San Diego, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,100	$2.58	0d	1	0.30mi
9913 Paseo Montril San Diego, CA	2.0	2.5	1341	$3,300	$2.46	119d	1	0.32mi
13153 Avenida Grande San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1254	$3,850	$3.07	67d	1	0.34mi
10034 Via La Cantera San Diego, CA	4.0	2.5	1612	$4,500	$2.79	43d	1	0.35mi
13021 Evening Creek Dr S #21 San Diego, CA	2.0	2.5	1450	$3,800	$2.62	10d	1	0.43mi
13069 Evening Creek Dr S #59 San Diego, CA	3.0	2.5	1447	$3,750	$2.59	139d	1	0.45mi
13045 Evening Creek Dr S #43 San Diego, CA	2.0	2.5	1450	$4,064	$2.80	63d	1	0.48mi
13045 S Evening Creek Dr San Diego, CA	2.0	2.5	1450	$4,000	$2.76	0d	1	0.48mi
12613 Cabezon Pl San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1766	$3,995	$2.26	33d	1	0.66mi
10880 Serafina Ln #44 San Diego, CA	2.0	2.0	1148	$3,300	$2.87	27d	1	0.67mi
12685 Savannah Creek Dr #261 San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1227	$3,975	$3.24	3d	1	0.69mi
12625 Fiorenza Ln #237 San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1227	$3,875	$3.16	139d	1	0.76mi
12680 Creekview Dr #143 San Diego, CA	2.0	2.0	1227	$3,750	$3.06	139d	1	0.84mi
10408 Caminito Rimini Unit 10408 San Diego, CA	3.0	1.5	1215	$3,000	$2.47	75d	1	0.84mi
9904 Kika Ct San Diego, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$3,883	$3.82	1d	13	0.90mi
9874 Caminito Cuadro San Diego, CA	2.0	1.5	1066	$3,195	$3.00	33d	1	0.90mi
13392 Cool Lake Way San Diego, CA	3.0	2.5	1603	$8,500	$5.30	60d	1	0.91mi
10370 Scripps Poway Pkwy #52 San Diego, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$3,350	$3.19	73d	1	0.93mi
10398 Scripps Poway Pkwy #82 San Diego, CA	2.0	2.0	1060	$3,050	$2.88	65d	1	0.94mi
9528 Bayamon Rd San Diego, CA	2.0	2.0	1109	$3,650	$3.29	43d	1	0.95mi
9790 Caminito Bolsa San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$3,600	$3.08	56d	1	0.95mi
9838 Caminito Bolsa San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1215	$3,190	$2.63	43d	1	0.95mi
10504 Caminito Rimini San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,973	$2.70	10d	1	0.97mi
10530 Caminito Rimini San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1215	$3,280	$2.70	10d	1	0.98mi
12526 Heatherton Ct #183 San Diego, CA	3.0	2.5	1598	$4,200	$2.63	139d	1	0.99mi
10326 Scripps Poway Pkwy San Diego, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,995	$2.81	113d	1	1.01mi
9583 Whellock Way San Diego, CA	4.0	2.5	2107	$4,995	$2.37	69d	1	1.02mi
9870 Mercy Rd San Diego, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1065	$3,862	$3.63	0d	6	1.02mi
11065 Evening Creek Dr E San Diego, CA	4.0	2.5	1739	$5,500	$3.16	69d	1	1.03mi
12488 Heatherton Ct #51 San Diego, CA	2.0	2.0	1124	$3,200	$2.85	110d	1	1.03mi
9489 Fairgrove Ln #103 San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,695	$3.36	5d	1	1.05mi
9930 Via Monzon San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$4,000	$2.84	139d	1	1.06mi
13222 Salmon River Rd #101 San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1127	$3,500	$3.11	74d	1	1.07mi
9459 Fairgrove Ln #101 San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1127	$3,295	$2.92	93d	1	1.09mi
9429 Fairgrove Ln #203 San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1082	$3,299	$3.05	33d	1	1.13mi
9462 Pipilo St San Diego, CA	4.0	2.5	1876	$4,600	$2.45	108d	1	1.15mi
9411 Pipilo St San Diego, CA	4.0	3.0	1979	$5,050	$2.55	139d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $493HOA includes insurance, ground maintenance, and structure maintenanceCommunity/Building: Paseo Sereno (Rancho Penasquitos subdivision)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: TownhouseResidential propertyEntry level: 13 storiesStucco construction
• Construction: Stucco exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Full fencingComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas rangeGas cooktopDisposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalGas RangeGas CooktopCentral airForced air heatingNatural gas heating

HOA detail $493/mo · $5,916/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $431,033 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $431,033 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $431,033 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $431,033 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $431,033 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $431,033 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $431,033 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $431,033 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $431,033 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $431,033 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $431,033 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $431,033 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $431,033 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-09-06
    status $431,033 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-26
    status $431,033 Pending 34 DOM
16. 2026-06-24
    days on market $431,033 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-06-22
    days on market $431,033 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-06-21
    days on market $431,033 Active 31 DOM
19. 2026-06-19
    remarks 699-char remark
20. 2026-06-18
    days on market $431,033 Active 28 DOM
21. 2026-06-17
    days on market $431,033 Active 27 DOM
22. 2026-06-16
    days on market $431,033 Active 26 DOM
23. 2026-06-15
    days on market $431,033 Active 25 DOM
24. 2026-06-13
    days on market $431,033 Active 23 DOM
25. 2026-06-13
    days on market $431,033 Active 22 DOM
26. 2026-06-09
    days on market $431,033 Active 19 DOM
27. 2026-06-08
    days on market $431,033 Active 18 DOM
28. 2026-06-07
    days on market $431,033 Active 17 DOM
29. 2026-06-04
    days on market $431,033 Active 14 DOM
30. 2026-06-03
    days on market $431,033 Active 13 DOM
31. 2026-06-02
    days on market $431,033 Active 12 DOM
32. 2026-06-01
    days on market $431,033 Active 11 DOM
33. 2026-05-31
    days on market $431,033 Active 10 DOM
34. 2026-05-21
    listed $431,033 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,145
• − Property taxes: −$6,465
• − Insurance: −$2,155
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,753
• − Management: −$3,753
• − HOA: −$5,916
• − Depreciation: −$12,539
• Taxable loss: −$11,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,835
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 20 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good curb appeal. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from some aesthetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Modern flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained garden can enhance the curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Los Penasquitos Elementary Middle Black Mountain Middle High Mt. Carmel High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -50.00%
• Median HH income: $102,903
• Composite: 27.12/100
• National rank: #7036
• State rank: #317 of 517 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — San Diego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4206

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Diego, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,678,185 people
• City population: 1,397,612
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,965
• Household income: $156,321
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 34% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 31% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Chinese 7% Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -824.91%
• Current HPI: 427.4924
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.58%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $493HOA includes insurance, ground maintenance, and structure maintenanceCommunity/Building: Paseo Sereno (Rancho Penasquitos subdivision)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: TownhouseResidential propertyEntry level: 13 storiesStucco construction
• Construction: Stucco exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Full fencingComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas rangeGas cooktopDisposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalGas RangeGas CooktopCentral airForced air heatingNatural gas heating

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-24 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $431,033 SDMLS