306 Merwinsburg Rd

Effort, PA 18330

$2,200,000C+

None bd · None ba · 10,546 sqft · Built 1902 · MultiFamily · Active · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $26,503/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,537
• Tax + insurance: −$3,667
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,566
• Net cashflow: $5,734/mo
• Annual: $68,804/yr
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.17%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $616,000

Investor read

• This is a 15 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $2.20M. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($69k/yr) — positive. Per door: $382/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $2.20M).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.94M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.94M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $66k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#292 in PA, #2,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pleasant Valley SD (rural): math 31% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #297 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $616k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.7% in Effort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: interior walls — Some wear
• Unknown: HVAC/mechanicals — No photos