1929 SW 54th Ln

Cape Coral, FL 33914

$499,900C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,808/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$1,234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,010
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-684/yr
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $139,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-684/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $490k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $481k (3.8% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $481k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cape Elementary School (math 72% / reading 65%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 759 students, 43% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 57% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.4%/yr); 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $418k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,808/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 835% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.