2991 Johnson Chapel Rd

Baxter, TN 38583

$129,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,009/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $40/mo
• Annual: $474/yr
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($474/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $278 of equity ($898 loan paydown + $-620 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#131 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Dekalb County (rural): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #115 of 139 in TN (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 143 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• DeKalb County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.8% in Baxter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.