2991 Johnson Chapel Rd · Baxter, TN 38583

$129,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1975 0.33 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Fantastic opportunity! Come make this lake property your next investment. This single wide mobile home has had an addition built on with all windows in order to see Center Hill Lake. There is so much potential here and with some TLC this could be a dream come true. Property is being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Lake property
• Addition built on
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• LAKE PROPERTY
• ADDITION BUILT ON

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 4 total parking spaces; 4 covered parking spaces; Carport and detached carport
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Lakefront property with views; Covered porch

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Central heating and central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($474/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.8% in Baxter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#131 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Dekalb County (rural): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #115 of 139 in TN (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 143 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $278 of equity ($898 loan paydown + $-620 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• DeKalb County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,879 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,241
• Equity at exit: $34,647

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $13,109
• Equity at exit: $39,269

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38583

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $265/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $959

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $129,900 Active 295-char remark
18. 2006-07-26
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $265 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 248.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$265
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$968
• − Management: −$968
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$432
• After-tax cash flow: $907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 4700990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,832
• Composite: 16.73/100
• National rank: #9165
• State rank: #115 of 139 in TN

Livability — Baxter

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #12008

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 25,739

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,289 people
• By 2030: 20,738 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 21,411 · +5.5%
• By 2050: 21,751 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 22,170 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 21,381 · +5.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.2% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.0pp toward R · 2008: -17.7pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+57.8 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 357.041
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $129,900 UCMLS
• 2006-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $265 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.