7950 State Road 78 W #262

Buckhead Ridge, FL 34974

$105,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 424 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Active · 428 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$155
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-231/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-231/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (3.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#785 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Okeechobee (town): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #58 of 73 in FL (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 402 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Okeechobee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Okeechobee County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $105k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.