7950 State Road 78 W #262 · Buckhead Ridge, FL 34974

$105,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 424 sqft · Manufactured public records · 428 Days on market

Built 2006 1,524 sqft lot $155/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* WELCOME TO THE BIG O the most active 55+ community in Okeechobee * This home is TURN KEY fully furnished! One bedroom/one bath with a 21 X 20 loft and added storage under the bed. New floors throughout the home, full size washer and dryer, and even the television conveys. This bright and charming home features many amenities, plenty of parking, a shed for all your fishing rods, patio with pavers and your own pergola to watch the sunrise and sunsets surrounded by a beautiful pond. Priced to sell! All measurements are approximate.

Key facts

• New floors
• Added storage
• Plenty of parking

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• ADDED STORAGE
• NEW FLOORS
• FULL SIZE WASHER AND DRYER
• PLENTY OF PARKING
• SHED FOR FISHING RODS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Total annual fees listed as $1,860
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $155; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, gated community, laundry, pool; Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Buyer approval required; Community features: community mailbox, golf carts allowed, association-owned recreation; Pets allowed with breed restrictions, maximum pet weight 60 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Southeast facing
• Construction: Log construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on a lot of about 0.04 acres
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Pond on the property; On-waterfront with pond access and pond view; In-ground heated pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom; Loft
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Kitchen and family room combined; Skylight
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Outside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-231/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (3.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#785 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Okeechobee (town): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #58 of 73 in FL (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 402 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Okeechobee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okeechobee County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $105k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,936
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7950 Fl-78 #316	0.21mi	1/1.0	480 (+13%)	16mo	$66,500	$139	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-18,138
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-16,956
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34974

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,411/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $101,597

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 428 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 427 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 426 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 425 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 424 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 422 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 419 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 418 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 417 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 416 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 413 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 412 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 411 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 410 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 409 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 408 DOM
17. 2025-10-17
    price $105,000
18. 2025-10-17
    status Active
19. 2025-10-08
    historical
20. 2025-04-08
    listed $119,000 Active
21. 2020-01-22
    soldstatus $70,000
22. 2006-08-10
    soldstatus $35,000
23. 2006-03-01
    soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,411
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$1,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$460
• After-tax cash flow: $229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okeechobee
• NCES district ID: 1201410
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,710
• Composite: 35.73/100
• National rank: #4855
• State rank: #58 of 73 in FL

Livability — Buckhead Ridge

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #17876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Okeechobee County · 23,975 people
• Metro: Okeechobee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,975
• Household income: $53,013
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 399.0

Population outlook (Okeechobee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,273 people
• By 2030: 35,885 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 32,931 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 29,433 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 19,607 · -47.4%
• By 2100: 11,814 · -68.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okeechobee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.9% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.47%
• Current HPI: 348.6692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Okeechobee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+281.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Listed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,411 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.