22899 Byron Rd #29

Crestline, CA 92325

$179,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 486 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,136/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$424
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $325/mo
• Annual: $3,905/yr
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.79%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#805 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute D, schools D-, crime F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $179k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.9% in Crestline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.