22899 Byron Rd #29 · Crestline, CA 92325

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 486 Days on market

Built 2023 $124/sqft · 81% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and modern newly built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the highly desired Valley of Enchantment family park. Built with durable 2x4 construction and a 60 lb. roof load for snow, offering lasting quality and peace of mind. Features a bright open floor plan, vinyl sheet flooring, carpeted bedrooms, new appliances, and a spacious main bedroom with a large walk-in closet. A perfect starter for families or first-time buyers seeking quality and value. Space rent $1,049/month.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2023
• Listed 485 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.9% in Crestline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#805 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute D, schools D-, crime F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $179k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.79%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,500
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: 93.51%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22899 Byron Rd #41	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$44,000	$31	98
22899 BYRON Rd #58	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$129,000	$90	84
22899 Byron Rd #65	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	21mo	$90,000	$67	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,567
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $38,452
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92325

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,724

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22858 Lupin Ln Cedarpines Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,000	$1.70	1d	1	0.24mi
767 Woodland Rd Unit 1 Crestline, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	2d	1	1.00mi
21510 Crest Forest Dr Cedarpines Park, CA	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,350	$1.29	1d	1	1.02mi
794 Woodland Rd Crestline, CA	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,400	$1.02	17d	1	1.08mi
23855 Zuger Dr Unit B Crestline, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,995	$1.53	19d	1	1.40mi
23882 Springwater Rd Crestline, CA	3.0	1.0	1133	$2,500	$2.21	19d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 486 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 485 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 484 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 483 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 481 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 480 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 477 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 476 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 475 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 472 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 471 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 470 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 646-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 469 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 468 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    price $179,000 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Beautiful and modern newly built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the highly desired Valley of Enchantment family park. Built with durable 2x4 construction and a 60 lb. roof load for snow, offering lasting quality and peace of mind. Features a bright open floor plan, vinyl sheet flooring, carpeted bedrooms, new appliances, and a spacious main bedroom with a large walk-in closet. A perfect starter for families or first-time buyers seeking quality and value. Space rent $1,049/month.

17. 2026-04-07
    price $17,900 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Beautiful and modern newly built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the highly desired Valley of Enchantment family park. Built with durable 2x4 construction and a 60 lb. roof load for snow, offering lasting quality and peace of mind. Features a bright open floor plan, vinyl sheet flooring, carpeted bedrooms, new appliances, and a spacious main bedroom with a large walk-in closet. A perfect starter for families or first-time buyers seeking quality and value. Space rent $1,049/month.

18. 2025-09-12
    price $189,900 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Beautiful and modern newly built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the highly desired Valley of Enchantment family park. Built with durable 2x4 construction and a 60 lb. roof load for snow, offering lasting quality and peace of mind. Features a bright open floor plan, vinyl sheet flooring, carpeted bedrooms, new appliances, and a spacious main bedroom with a large walk-in closet. A perfect starter for families or first-time buyers seeking quality and value. Space rent $1,049/month.

19. 2025-02-17
    listed $199,900 Active 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Beautiful and modern newly built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the highly desired Valley of Enchantment family park. Built with durable 2x4 construction and a 60 lb. roof load for snow, offering lasting quality and peace of mind. Features a bright open floor plan, vinyl sheet flooring, carpeted bedrooms, new appliances, and a spacious main bedroom with a large walk-in closet. A perfect starter for families or first-time buyers seeking quality and value. Space rent $1,049/month.

20. 2025-01-08
    historical
21. 2024-09-16
    listed $199,900 Active
22. 2020-07-09
    soldstatus $51,000 Closed Sale
23. 2020-06-29
    status Pending Sale
24. 2020-06-10
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2020-05-21
    price $59,900
26. 2020-04-28
    price $64,900
27. 2020-04-03
    listed $69,900 Active
28. 2010-03-09
    soldstatus $16,500 Closed
29. 2010-02-11
    status Pending
30. 2010-01-25
    price $21,900
31. 2009-12-22
    price $39,999
32. 2009-07-31
    listed $42,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 3 d/yr ≥89°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$2,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $1,217
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$292
• After-tax cash flow: $3,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Crestline

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #805
• US rank: #22821

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestline, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 9,065
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 9,065
• Household income: $70,563
• Rent vs Own: 25.3% rent · 74.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 20% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -255.88%
• Current HPI: 352.6512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+317.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $179,000 SDMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $17,900 SDMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $189,900 SDMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $199,900 SDMLS
• 2025-01-08 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listed $199,900 SDMLS
• 2020-07-09 Sold (MLS) $51,000 CRMLS
• 2020-06-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-06-10 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2020-05-21 Price Changed $59,900 CRMLS
• 2020-04-28 Price Changed $64,900 CRMLS
• 2020-04-03 Listed $69,900 CRMLS
• 2010-03-09 Sold (MLS) $16,500 CRMLS
• 2010-02-11 Pending — CRMLS
• 2010-01-25 Price Changed $21,900 CRMLS
• 2009-12-22 Price Changed $39,999 CRMLS
• 2009-07-31 Listed $42,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $141 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.