3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,320 sqft ·
Built 1957
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,732/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,153
Tax + insurance
−$293
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$364
Net cashflow
$-78/mo
Annual
$-932/yr
Cap rate
5.87%
Cash-on-cash
-1.51%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$61,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-932/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (6.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (21.3% below list).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $173k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Parker Road Elementary (354 students, 99% FRL); Cross Keys Middle (math 5% / reading 10%, grade F, #379 of 391 statewide, top 97%, 625 students, 100% FRL); Mccluer North High (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #487 of 521 statewide, top 93%, 1,136 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29