302 Mary St

Mexico, MO 65265

$132,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · Built 1976 · Other · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $293/mo
• Annual: $3,512/yr
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.50%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $36,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $132k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $132k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#256 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mexico 59 (town): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #229 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 27 units permitted in Audrain County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Audrain County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $132k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Mexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.