302 Mary St · Mexico, MO 65265

$132,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · Other public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1976 9,417 sqft lot $118/sqft · 6% below area Est $140k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME SWEET HOME! This beautiful three bedroom, one and half bath offers 1,118 square feet with a fenced in back yard. Come check it out before it's too late!

Key facts

• 9,417 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $132k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Mexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#256 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mexico 59 (town): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #229 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 27 units permitted in Audrain County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Audrain County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $132k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $116,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.50%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,009
• List price: $132,000
• Delta: -5.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,781
• Equity at exit: $19,682

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $21,460
• Equity at exit: $11,413

Cash invested: $36,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65265

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $992/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,051

Max offer price $132,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $367	-5% $330	+0% $293	+5% $255	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $180	-5% $237	+0% $293	+5% $349	+10% $405
Rate	-1.0pp $359	-0.5pp $326	base $293	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,000
• Closing costs: $3,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Carson St Mexico, MO	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	21d	1	0.73mi
1730 Sierra St Mexico, MO	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,950	$1.70	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $132,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $132,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $132,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $132,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $132,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $132,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $132,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $132,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-02-17
    listed $155,000 Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    HOME SWEET HOME! This beautiful three bedroom, one and half bath offers 1,118 square feet with a fenced in back yard. Come check it out before it's too late!

17. 2026-02-17
    listed $155,000 Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    HOME SWEET HOME! This beautiful three bedroom, one and half bath offers 1,118 square feet with a fenced in back yard. Come check it out before it's too late!

18. 2026-02-17
    listed $155,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    HOME SWEET HOME! This beautiful three bedroom, one and half bath offers 1,118 square feet with a fenced in back yard. Come check it out before it's too late!

19. 2025-09-25
    listed $159,999 Active
20. 2025-09-25
    listed $159,999 Active
21. 2025-09-25
    listed $159,999 Active
22. 2022-11-14
    soldstatus
23. 2022-11-10
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2022-11-10
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2022-09-20
    status Pending
26. 2022-08-31
    listed $129,900 Active
27. 2022-08-31
    listed $129,900 Active
28. 2007-01-01
    soldstatus $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,394
• − Property taxes: −$992
• − Insurance: −$660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$3,840
• Taxable income: $1,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$345
• After-tax cash flow: $3,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico 59
• NCES district ID: 2920810
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,152
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6601
• State rank: #229 of 324 in MO

Livability — Mexico

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #12405

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexico, MO
• Population (ZIP): 15,131

Population outlook (Audrain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,791 people
• By 2030: 28,684 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 30,598 · +10.1%
• By 2050: 32,319 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 36,395 · +31.0%
• By 2100: 37,277 · +34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Audrain

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.6) · D 25.6% · R 73.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.6pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -47.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.6 2020: R+47.2 2016: R+44.0 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.24%
• Current HPI: 213.6163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+95.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $155,000 CBORMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $155,000 HMMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Listed $159,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Listed $159,999 HMMLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed $159,999 CBORMLS
• 2022-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-10 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2022-11-10 Sold (MLS) — HMMLS
• 2022-09-20 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2022-08-31 Listed $129,900 CBORMLS
• 2022-08-31 Listed $129,900 HMMLS
• 2007-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $992 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.