14895 Woodcreek Ln

Timberville, VA 22853

$250,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,119 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-269/mo
• Annual: $-3,229/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.61%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (36.2% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $160k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#283 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Rockingham County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #77 of 131 in VA (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Plains Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 456 students, 65% FRL); J. Frank Hillyard Middle (math 51% / reading 59%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 665 students, 49% FRL); Broadway High (math 68% / reading 79%, grade B+, #124 of 319 statewide, top 40%, 923 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 32% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 683 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockingham County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.