5 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,497 sqft ·
Built 1951
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,500/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,403
Tax + insurance
−$1,063
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,155
Net cashflow
$-121/mo
Annual
$-1,456/yr
Cap rate
6.86%
Cash-on-cash
2.02%
DSCR
1.09
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$181,720
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $649k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $628k (3.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $550k (15.3% below list).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($639k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $550k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#82 in NY, #1,242 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
Massapequa Union Free School District (suburban): math 76% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #39 of 590 in NY (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.5% in Massapequa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-25NEETF2W08N14
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29