4114 Holiday Dr #20

Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$159,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Pending · 252 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,190/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$1,015
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-340/mo
• Annual: $-4,085/yr
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.18%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-340 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.1% in Lower Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?