4114 Holiday Dr #20 · Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$159,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · Condo public records · 252 Days on market

Built 1984 $256/sqft · 22% below area Est $204k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge Price Reduction * * seller motivated * * bring all offers . .. .. Affordable Beach Retreat - Rare Find 1BD loft UNIT . .. .. Just 100 Yards from the Gulf! Don't miss your chance to own one of the most affordable beach condos on the Emerald Coast! Perfect as a personal getaway or an income-producing investment, this top-floor gem is ideally located just steps from Beach Accesses 13 & 14--putting the sugar-white sands of the Gulf right at your doorstep. Inside, you'll find a beautifully updated, fully furnished space ready to enjoy from day one. The main level features an open-concept living area with a sleek modern kitchen (stainless steel appliances + granite countertops), dining space, comfortable living room, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, a spacious loft bedroom with king-size bed, mounted TV, and private half bath creates a relaxing retreat. Extra perks include: Washer/dryer + storage space right outside the door for your beach gear. Peek-a-boo Gulf views from your windows. Private front deck for enjoying coastal breezes. Lightly used & well-maintained. Community amenities make this condo even more attractive: a gated pool, reserved parking, and an unbeatable east-end location close to restaurants, shops, and entertainment along Thomas Drive. Whether you're looking for a low-maintenance beach escape or an affordable short-term rental with excellent potential, this property is a standout opportunity. Act now--condos this close to the beach at this price point rarely last. Schedule your private showing today, ask your questions, and be ready to make an offer before it's gone!

Key facts

• Private half bath
• Washer dryer
• Storage space

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LOFT BEDROOM
• PRIVATE HALF BATH
• WASHER DRYER
• STORAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-340 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.1% in Lower Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.18%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,708
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -21.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-47,804
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-71,000
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,867/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$1,015
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,621

Max offer price $98,861

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4114 Holiday Dr Unit 1523354P Panama City Beach, FL	—	1.0	398	$2,770	$6.96	13d	1	0.03mi
2617 Cypress St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	21d	1	0.93mi
4014 Irwin St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	697	$1,250	$1.79	21d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $159,000 Pending 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,000 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,000 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $159,000 Active 249 DOM
6. 2026-04-24
   price $159,000 1626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1626 chars)

   Huge Price Reduction * * seller motivated * * bring all offers . .. .. Affordable Beach Retreat - Rare Find 1BD loft UNIT . .. .. Just 100 Yards from the Gulf! Don't miss your chance to own one of the most affordable beach condos on the Emerald Coast! Perfect as a personal getaway or an income-producing investment, this top-floor gem is ideally located just steps from Beach Accesses 13 & 14--putting the sugar-white sands of the Gulf right at your doorstep. Inside, you'll find a beautifully updated, fully furnished space ready to enjoy from day one. The main level features an open-concept living area with a sleek modern kitchen (stainless steel appliances + granite countertops), dining space, comfortable living room, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, a spacious loft bedroom with king-size bed, mounted TV, and private half bath creates a relaxing retreat. Extra perks include: Washer/dryer + storage space right outside the door for your beach gear. Peek-a-boo Gulf views from your windows. Private front deck for enjoying coastal breezes. Lightly used & well-maintained. Community amenities make this condo even more attractive: a gated pool, reserved parking, and an unbeatable east-end location close to restaurants, shops, and entertainment along Thomas Drive. Whether you're looking for a low-maintenance beach escape or an affordable short-term rental with excellent potential, this property is a standout opportunity. Act now--condos this close to the beach at this price point rarely last. Schedule your private showing today, ask your questions, and be ready to make an offer before it's gone!

7. 2025-11-21
   price $174,500 1626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1626 chars)

   Huge Price Reduction * * seller motivated * * bring all offers . .. .. Affordable Beach Retreat - Rare Find 1BD loft UNIT . .. .. Just 100 Yards from the Gulf! Don't miss your chance to own one of the most affordable beach condos on the Emerald Coast! Perfect as a personal getaway or an income-producing investment, this top-floor gem is ideally located just steps from Beach Accesses 13 & 14--putting the sugar-white sands of the Gulf right at your doorstep. Inside, you'll find a beautifully updated, fully furnished space ready to enjoy from day one. The main level features an open-concept living area with a sleek modern kitchen (stainless steel appliances + granite countertops), dining space, comfortable living room, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, a spacious loft bedroom with king-size bed, mounted TV, and private half bath creates a relaxing retreat. Extra perks include: Washer/dryer + storage space right outside the door for your beach gear. Peek-a-boo Gulf views from your windows. Private front deck for enjoying coastal breezes. Lightly used & well-maintained. Community amenities make this condo even more attractive: a gated pool, reserved parking, and an unbeatable east-end location close to restaurants, shops, and entertainment along Thomas Drive. Whether you're looking for a low-maintenance beach escape or an affordable short-term rental with excellent potential, this property is a standout opportunity. Act now--condos this close to the beach at this price point rarely last. Schedule your private showing today, ask your questions, and be ready to make an offer before it's gone!

8. 2025-09-23
   listed $199,900 Active 1626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1626 chars)

   Huge Price Reduction * * seller motivated * * bring all offers . .. .. Affordable Beach Retreat - Rare Find 1BD loft UNIT . .. .. Just 100 Yards from the Gulf! Don't miss your chance to own one of the most affordable beach condos on the Emerald Coast! Perfect as a personal getaway or an income-producing investment, this top-floor gem is ideally located just steps from Beach Accesses 13 & 14--putting the sugar-white sands of the Gulf right at your doorstep. Inside, you'll find a beautifully updated, fully furnished space ready to enjoy from day one. The main level features an open-concept living area with a sleek modern kitchen (stainless steel appliances + granite countertops), dining space, comfortable living room, and a full bathroom. Upstairs, a spacious loft bedroom with king-size bed, mounted TV, and private half bath creates a relaxing retreat. Extra perks include: Washer/dryer + storage space right outside the door for your beach gear. Peek-a-boo Gulf views from your windows. Private front deck for enjoying coastal breezes. Lightly used & well-maintained. Community amenities make this condo even more attractive: a gated pool, reserved parking, and an unbeatable east-end location close to restaurants, shops, and entertainment along Thomas Drive. Whether you're looking for a low-maintenance beach escape or an affordable short-term rental with excellent potential, this property is a standout opportunity. Act now--condos this close to the beach at this price point rarely last. Schedule your private showing today, ask your questions, and be ready to make an offer before it's gone!

9. 2025-08-16
   historical
10. 2024-12-10
    price $209,900
11. 2024-11-27
    status Active
12. 2024-11-25
    status Pending
13. 2024-11-24
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2024-08-20
    price $214,900
15. 2024-06-22
    listed $219,000 Active
16. 2021-12-14
    historical
17. 1998-10-20
    listed $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,867 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,867 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,867
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − HOA: −$12,180
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$6,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,511
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lower Grand Lagoon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #9567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+221.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $159,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $174,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $199,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $209,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-11-27 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2024-11-25 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2024-11-24 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $214,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-22 Listed $219,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 1998-10-20 Listed $49,500 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,867 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.