445 Cedar Cir

Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA 96137

$394,500B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,069
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $911/mo
• Annual: $10,926/yr
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.89%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $110,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $394k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $911 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $394k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $389k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#781 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C. Roy Carmichael Elementary (346 students, 72% FRL); Quincy Junior/Senior High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; list at $394k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $110k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 1.2% in Lake Almanor Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.