445 Cedar Cir · Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA 96137

$394,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $504k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Quintessential Lake Almanor cabin in great peninsula location on 1/2 acre. Just steps from 2 Marina & acirc; & euro; & trade; s, Restaurants, Brewery and Market. Knotty Pine and exposed beams throughout add warmth and charm. Velux skylights & amp; Anderson wood entry door/windows allow plenty of light and cross breezes through. Generous decks both front and back for barbecuing, hot tubbing or just enjoying the wildlife and cool summer evenings. Listen to the wind through the towering pines. Affordable Getaway for making family memories or AirBnB income. Sleeps up to 8 with large family room. Bailey Creek Golf just around the corner. Loads of parking for boats, toys and RV. R

Key facts

• Steps from marina
• Velux skylights
• Lake almanor cabin

Tags

• LAKE ALMANOR CABIN
• GREAT PENINSULA LOCATION
• STEPS FROM MARINA
• KNOTTY PINE AND EXPOSED BEAMS
• VELUX SKYLIGHTS
• ANDERSON WOOD ENTRY DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $394k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $911 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $394k).
• Recommended offer: $389k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 1.2% in Lake Almanor Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#781 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C. Roy Carmichael Elementary (346 students, 72% FRL); Quincy Junior/Senior High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $110k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; list at $394k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $388,582 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.89%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $503,712
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
450 Ponderosa Drive Dr	0.08mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,573 (-1%)	9mo	$410,000	$261	78
467 Ponderosa Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+6%)	6mo	$535,000	$318	76
552 Manzanita Way	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,482 (-6%)	10mo	$390,000	$263	66
544 Ponderosa Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+2%)	10mo	$425,000	$263	66
540 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+5%)	8mo	$685,000	$411	58
127 Swiss Stone Rd	0.68mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,640 (+4%)	18mo	$621,000	$379	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $72,593
• Equity at exit: $142,475

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $220,703
• Equity at exit: $195,520

Cash invested: $110,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96137

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,069
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,565/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $911

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,097

Max offer price $394,500

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,134	-5% $1,022	+0% $911	+5% $799	+10% $687
Rent	-10% $575	-5% $743	+0% $911	+5% $1,078	+10% $1,246
Rate	-1.0pp $1,109	-0.5pp $1,011	base $911	+0.5pp $808	+1.0pp $704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,625
• Closing costs: $11,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 W Burnt Cedar Rd Westwood, CA	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,250	$2.02	46d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $394,500 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $394,500 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $394,500 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $394,500 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $394,500 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $394,500 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $394,500 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $394,500 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $394,500 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $394,500 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $394,500 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $394,500 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $394,500 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $394,500 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $394,500 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $394,500 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $394,500 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $394,500 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-05-26
    listed $394,500 Active
20. 2025-11-30
    historical
21. 2025-10-18
    status Active
22. 2025-10-03
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2025-09-13
    price $379,900
24. 2025-09-13
    price $379,900
25. 2025-08-14
    price $382,500
26. 2025-08-14
    price $382,500
27. 2025-06-09
    price $394,500
28. 2025-06-09
    price $394,500
29. 2025-05-23
    listed $399,000 Active
30. 2016-08-01
    soldstatus $163,000
31. 2016-07-29
    soldstatus $163,000
32. 2015-06-05
    listed $185,500
33. 1990-09-25
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,565 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,998 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$433/yr (+$36/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,098
• − Property taxes: −$2,565
• − Insurance: −$1,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,080
• − Management: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$11,476
• Taxable income: $4,728
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,135
• After-tax cash flow: $9,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plumas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,935
• Composite: 27.89/100
• National rank: #6870
• State rank: #306 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Almanor Peninsula

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #22469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Plumas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 14,014 · -10.0%
• By 2040: 11,197 · -28.1%
• By 2050: 9,069 · -41.7%
• By 2075: 5,573 · -64.2%
• By 2100: 3,392 · -78.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Plumas

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 39.9% · R 56.9% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+16.7 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.38%
• Current HPI: 153.1005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+364.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $394,500 FSBO.com
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-03 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $379,900 CRMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $379,900 PAR
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $382,500 CRMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $382,500 PAR
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $394,500 CRMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $394,500 PAR
• 2025-05-23 Listed $399,000 CRMLS
• 2016-08-01 Sold (MLS) $163,000 PAR
• 2016-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-05 Listed $185,500 PAR
• 1990-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,565 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.