41 Beilke Rd

Millerton, NY 12546

$450,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,634 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$730
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-760/mo
• Annual: $-9,117/yr
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.24%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-760 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (34.4% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#594 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Northeast Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #592 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $305k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?