41 Beilke Rd · Millerton, NY 12546

$450,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,634 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1935 0.45 ac lot $171/sqft · 8% below area Est $488k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath colonial in Northern Dutchess County featuring modern updates and timeless charm. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and hardwood floors, which flow into the dining and family rooms. French doors open to a large deck and private, fenced backyard, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Additional features include radiant heat, a five-year-old boiler, and a huge basement with potential for finishing to add extra living space. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, the Village of Millerton, skiing, and the Harlem Valley Rail Trail. Easy access to Connecticut and Columbia County makes this home perfect for commuters or weekend getaways. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in a desirable Millerton location!

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-760 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#594 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Northeast Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #592 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $305k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $295,000 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.24%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $488,158
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -7.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Irondale Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,848 (+8%)	4mo	$255,000	$90	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $196,727
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $617,444
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12546

• Home prices YoY: 27.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$543 /mo · $6,515/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-760

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,912

Max offer price $315,791

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5768 New York 22 Millerton, NY	5.0	2.0	2200	$2,950	$1.34	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $450,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $450,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $450,000 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath colonial in Northern Dutchess County featuring modern updates and timeless charm. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and hardwood floors, which flow into the dining and family rooms. French doors open to a large deck and private, fenced backyard, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Additional features include radiant heat, a five-year-old boiler, and a huge basement with potential for finishing to add extra living space. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, the Village of Millerton, skiing, and the Harlem Valley Rail Trail. Easy access to Connecticut and Columbia County makes this home perfect for commuters or weekend getaways. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in a desirable Millerton location!

16. 2026-04-09
    status Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath colonial in Northern Dutchess County featuring modern updates and timeless charm. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and hardwood floors, which flow into the dining and family rooms. French doors open to a large deck and private, fenced backyard, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Additional features include radiant heat, a five-year-old boiler, and a huge basement with potential for finishing to add extra living space. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, the Village of Millerton, skiing, and the Harlem Valley Rail Trail. Easy access to Connecticut and Columbia County makes this home perfect for commuters or weekend getaways. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in a desirable Millerton location!

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $475,000 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath colonial in Northern Dutchess County featuring modern updates and timeless charm. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and hardwood floors, which flow into the dining and family rooms. French doors open to a large deck and private, fenced backyard, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Additional features include radiant heat, a five-year-old boiler, and a huge basement with potential for finishing to add extra living space. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, the Village of Millerton, skiing, and the Harlem Valley Rail Trail. Easy access to Connecticut and Columbia County makes this home perfect for commuters or weekend getaways. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in a desirable Millerton location!

18. 2026-03-19
    historical $475,000 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath colonial in Northern Dutchess County featuring modern updates and timeless charm. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and hardwood floors, which flow into the dining and family rooms. French doors open to a large deck and private, fenced backyard, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Additional features include radiant heat, a five-year-old boiler, and a huge basement with potential for finishing to add extra living space. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, the Village of Millerton, skiing, and the Harlem Valley Rail Trail. Easy access to Connecticut and Columbia County makes this home perfect for commuters or weekend getaways. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautifully updated home in a desirable Millerton location!

19. 2021-02-25
    soldstatus $305,000 Closed 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Renovated spacious four bedroom colonial. Updated kitchen w/ brand new granite counters, all new appliances and new hardwood floors. Dining Room & family room w/ brand new HWD floors. French doors open to backyard with brand new large deck w/ private backyard. 2 Full Baths, one with new shower and the other with new tub. Brand new fence and boiler. Radiant heat. Freshly painted. Huge basement with potential to finish. Northern Dutchess county, close to CT and Columbia County. Close to schools, shopping and village of Millerton, skiing and rail trail. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

20. 2021-01-21
    soldstatus $295,000
21. 2020-11-28
    status Pending 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Renovated spacious four bedroom colonial. Updated kitchen w/ brand new granite counters, all new appliances and new hardwood floors. Dining Room & family room w/ brand new HWD floors. French doors open to backyard with brand new large deck w/ private backyard. 2 Full Baths, one with new shower and the other with new tub. Brand new fence and boiler. Radiant heat. Freshly painted. Huge basement with potential to finish. Northern Dutchess county, close to CT and Columbia County. Close to schools, shopping and village of Millerton, skiing and rail trail. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

22. 2020-09-08
    price $297,500 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Renovated spacious four bedroom colonial. Updated kitchen w/ brand new granite counters, all new appliances and new hardwood floors. Dining Room & family room w/ brand new HWD floors. French doors open to backyard with brand new large deck w/ private backyard. 2 Full Baths, one with new shower and the other with new tub. Brand new fence and boiler. Radiant heat. Freshly painted. Huge basement with potential to finish. Northern Dutchess county, close to CT and Columbia County. Close to schools, shopping and village of Millerton, skiing and rail trail. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

23. 2020-08-20
    listed $299,900 Active 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Renovated spacious four bedroom colonial. Updated kitchen w/ brand new granite counters, all new appliances and new hardwood floors. Dining Room & family room w/ brand new HWD floors. French doors open to backyard with brand new large deck w/ private backyard. 2 Full Baths, one with new shower and the other with new tub. Brand new fence and boiler. Radiant heat. Freshly painted. Huge basement with potential to finish. Northern Dutchess county, close to CT and Columbia County. Close to schools, shopping and village of Millerton, skiing and rail trail. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

24. 2020-02-16
    listed $297,500
25. 2019-10-28
    soldstatus $111,000 Sold
26. 2019-09-05
    status Pending
27. 2019-09-05
    status Active
28. 2019-08-30
    status Pending
29. 2019-08-16
    status Active
30. 2019-08-14
    status Pending
31. 2019-07-29
    price $107,999
32. 2019-07-02
    price $119,900
33. 2019-04-16
    listed $135,200 Active
34. 2002-07-15
    soldstatus $85,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,515 · $543/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,060 · $588/mo
• Expected delta: +$545/yr (+$45/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,515
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$17,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,158
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northeast Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630390
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,965
• Composite: 39.37/100
• National rank: #8150
• State rank: #592 of 755 in NY

Livability — Millerton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #594
• US rank: #10777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime D Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,710

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 88.31%
• Current HPI: 405.1321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+428.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Coming Soon $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-25 Sold (MLS) $305,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-21 Sold (MLS) $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-08 Price Changed $297,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-20 Listed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-16 Listed $297,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-28 Sold (MLS) $111,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-05 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-16 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-29 Price Changed $107,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-02 Price Changed $119,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-16 Listed $135,200 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $85,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,515 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.