11768 Dumaine Valley Rd

Riverview, FL 33579

$269,990D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · Built 2022 · Townhouse · Active · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,249/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$546
• HOA: −$345
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-530/mo
• Annual: $-6,360/yr
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.36%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $75,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-530 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summerfield Elementary School (math 39% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 807 students, 60% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 651 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 90d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?