185 South Midddle Neck Rd Unit 1P

Thomaston, NY 11021

$288,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 752 sqft · Built 1960 · Condo · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,107/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax + insurance: −$480
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$652
• Net cashflow: $464/mo
• Annual: $5,567/yr
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.90%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $80,640

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $288k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $288k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($284k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $284k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in NY, #1,966 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Great Neck Union Free School District (suburban): math 86% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #30 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Saddle Rock School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 542 students, 16% FRL); Great Neck South Middle School (math 79% / reading 81%, grade A+, #28 of 729 statewide, top 4%, 861 students, 23% FRL); Great Neck South High School (math 100% / reading 92%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,262 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $288k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.