865 Olney Rd

Vinton, VA 24179

$259,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,541/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-470/mo
• Annual: $-5,641/yr
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.78%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (32.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (40.5% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#61 in VA, #1,742 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $259k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.