18 Church St

Carmel, NY 10512

$550,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,303 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$1,130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$756
• Net cashflow: $-1,170/mo
• Annual: $-14,044/yr
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.12%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-585/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (37.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $360k (34.5% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($534k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $343k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kent Primary School (math 32% / reading 72%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 366 students, 39% FRL); George Fischer Middle School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,130 students, 38% FRL); Carmel High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,365 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $218k; list at $550k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 1.9% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.