18 Church St · Carmel, NY 10512

$550,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,303 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1900 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

2 unit building, close to town, commuting, shopping, restaurants

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; One-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two 1-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil-fired heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-585/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (37.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $360k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $343k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 1.9% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kent Primary School (math 32% / reading 72%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 366 students, 39% FRL); George Fischer Middle School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,130 students, 38% FRL); Carmel High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,365 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($534k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $218k; list at $550k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,261 (37.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.12%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-163,476
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-237,577
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10512

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 25.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$901 /mo · $10,811/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$756
• Net cashflow: $-1,170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,081

Max offer price $343,261

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-859	-5% $-1,015	+0% $-1,170	+5% $-1,326	+10% $-1,482
Rent	-10% $-1,455	-5% $-1,313	+0% $-1,170	+5% $-1,028	+10% $-886
Rate	-1.0pp $-893	-0.5pp $-1,030	base $-1,170	+0.5pp $-1,313	+1.0pp $-1,458

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,600
Total (2 units)			$3,600

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39 Fowler Ave Unit 2 Carmel Hamlet, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	13d	1	0.69mi
11 Colonel Glenn Dr Carmel, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$4,000	$4.17	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $550,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $550,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $550,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $550,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $550,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $550,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $550,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $550,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $550,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $550,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $550,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $550,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $550,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $550,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $550,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $550,000 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    listed $550,000 Active
19. 1989-01-09
    soldstatus $218,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,811 · $901/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,811 · $901/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$10,811
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,456
• − Management: −$3,456
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$24,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,779
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606570
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $87,665
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1914
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Carmel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmel, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,238

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.73%
• Current HPI: 258.8452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+152.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $218,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,811 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.