1302 Hillsboro St

Pittsboro, NC 27312

$165,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,895/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $411/mo
• Annual: $4,931/yr
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.40%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#153 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Chatham County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #68 of 178 in NC (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northwood High (math 61% / reading 75%, grade B, #137 of 535 statewide, top 26%, 940 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 45% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chatham County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 511 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 458 units permitted in Chatham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chatham County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $165k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 1.9% in Pittsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.