7178 London Dr

Thomas, MI 48609

$159,900C+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,661 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,654/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$607
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-139/mo
• Annual: $-1,674/yr
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.60%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (15.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shields Elementary School (435 students, 40% FRL); Swan Valley Middle School (math 34% / reading 50%, grade D-, #186 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 386 students, 39% FRL); Swan Valley High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 536 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.