7178 London Dr · Thomas, MI 48609

$159,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,661 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1971 0.50 ac lot $60/sqft · 42% below area Est $208k · 23% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this spacious ranch in Shields, offering a perfect blend of comfort, space and location. Situated on an extra large lot, this home offers plenty of room for everyone. This home features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a bonus room. The main bedroom suite is spacious and natural light pours through the skylights in the bathroom. With its roomy layout, oversized yard and prime setting, this property is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Oversized yard
• Bonus room
• Extra large lot

Tags

• EXTRA LARGE LOT
• BONUS ROOM
• SKYLIGHTS IN BATHROOM
• OVERSIZED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage, paved; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed(s); Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Skylight(s); Therapeutic whirlpool; 10 total rooms; Basement with crawl space, concrete areas, and a sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (15.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shields Elementary School (435 students, 40% FRL); Swan Valley Middle School (math 34% / reading 50%, grade D-, #186 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 386 students, 39% FRL); Swan Valley High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 536 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,263 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.60%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,636
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -22.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7640 Madeline St	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,716 (+2%)	20mo	$210,000	$77	45
7655 Laurie Lane North Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,608 (-2%)	18mo	$287,000	$110	45
1351 Angela Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,584 (-3%)	19mo	$286,000	$111	36
7550 Laurie Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,262 (-15%)	21mo	$279,900	$124	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-34,559
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-40,579
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48609

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $962/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,830

Max offer price $135,263

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-94	+0% $-139	+5% $-185	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-205	+0% $-139	+5% $-74	+10% $-9
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-99	base $-139	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $159,900 Active 34 DOM

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious ranch in Shields, offering a perfect blend of comfort, space and location. Situated on an extra large lot, this home offers plenty of room for everyone. This home features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a bonus room. The main bedroom suite is spacious and natural light pours through the skylights in the bathroom. With its roomy layout, oversized yard and prime setting, this property is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with everyday convenience.

5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Welcome home to this spacious ranch in Shields, offering a perfect blend of comfort, space and location. Situated on an extra large lot, this home offers plenty of room for everyone. This home features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a bonus room. The main bedroom suite is spacious and natural light pours through the skylights in the bathroom. With its roomy layout, oversized yard and prime setting, this property is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with everyday convenience.

6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 16 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    listed $169,900 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Welcome home to this spacious ranch in Shields, offering a perfect blend of comfort, space and location. Situated on an extra large lot, this home offers plenty of room for everyone. This home features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a bonus room. The main bedroom suite is spacious and natural light pours through the skylights in the bathroom. With its roomy layout, oversized yard and prime setting, this property is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with everyday convenience.

20. 2026-05-13
    listed $169,900 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Welcome home to this spacious ranch in Shields, offering a perfect blend of comfort, space and location. Situated on an extra large lot, this home offers plenty of room for everyone. This home features 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths and a bonus room. The main bedroom suite is spacious and natural light pours through the skylights in the bathroom. With its roomy layout, oversized yard and prime setting, this property is a wonderful opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with everyday convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $962 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,712 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$750/yr (+$63/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$962
• − Insurance: −$6,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$4,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,015
• After-tax cash flow: $-659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swan Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2633410
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,994
• Composite: 42.38/100
• National rank: #3241
• State rank: #104 of 540 in MI

Livability — Thomas

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shields, MI
• Population (ZIP): 12,206

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.03%
• Current HPI: 179.2881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Listed $169,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Listed $169,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $962 · -72.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.