10818 Alvara Point Dr

Bonita Springs, FL 34135

$405,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,826 sqft · Built 2016 · Townhouse · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,524/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$383
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $-123/mo
• Annual: $-1,475/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $113,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $352k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 835 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,524/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 976% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.