191 Co Rd 309

New Houlka, MS 38850

$97,500C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $909/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $102/mo
• Annual: $1,220/yr
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.47%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $27,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (6.8% below list).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($674 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#272 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Chickasaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chickasaw County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.