15508 Royal Ridge Rd

Los Angeles, CA 91403

$1,590,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,692 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,199/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,338
• Tax + insurance: −$1,299
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,932
• Net cashflow: $-2,370/mo
• Annual: $-28,438/yr
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.21%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $445,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-28k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.17M (26.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $920k (42.1% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.49M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $920k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hesby Oaks Leadership Charter (501 students, 15% FRL, charter); Van Nuys Middle (869 students, 92% FRL); Van Nuys Senior High (math 40% / reading 56%, grade D, #380 of 1,170 statewide, top 33%, 2,323 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $488k; list at $1.59M implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$114k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?