5885 Crowfoot Rd

Trail, OR 97541

$279,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Pending · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,072/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-886/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-886/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (25.7% below list).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#354 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eagle Point SD 9 (suburban): math 26% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #134 of 183 in OR (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.