5885 Crowfoot Rd · Trail, OR 97541

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1981 13 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy your own private retreat on over 13 scenic acres! Relax and take in gorgeous mountain views from this peaceful property that backs up to BLM land--perfect for those who love the outdoors. Just minutes from the Rogue River and nearby lakes, you can fish, explore, or simply unwind in nature's beauty. The property includes a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home and a convenient shop, offering room for your hobbies, storage or projects. With privacy, space, and natural beauty, this is a great opportunity priced below appraised value. Schedule a tour and start your adventure today!

Key facts

• Scenic acres
• Spacious shop
• Backs up to blm land

Tags

• SCENIC ACRES
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• BACKS UP TO BLM LAND
• MINUTES FROM ROGUE RIVER
• NEARBY LAKES
• SPACIOUS SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-886/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#354 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eagle Point SD 9 (suburban): math 26% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #134 of 183 in OR (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,204 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $84,758
• Equity at exit: $184,973

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $250,702
• Equity at exit: $344,039

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97541

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,576/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,165

Max offer price $265,962

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $279,000 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Enjoy your own private retreat on over 13 scenic acres! Relax and take in gorgeous mountain views from this peaceful property that backs up to BLM land--perfect for those who love the outdoors. Just minutes from the Rogue River and nearby lakes, you can fish, explore, or simply unwind in nature's beauty. The property includes a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home and a convenient shop, offering room for your hobbies, storage or projects. With privacy, space, and natural beauty, this is a great opportunity priced below appraised value. Schedule a tour and start your adventure today!

2. 2026-03-24
   price $285,000 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Enjoy your own private retreat on over 13 scenic acres! Relax and take in gorgeous mountain views from this peaceful property that backs up to BLM land--perfect for those who love the outdoors. Just minutes from the Rogue River and nearby lakes, you can fish, explore, or simply unwind in nature's beauty. The property includes a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home and a convenient shop, offering room for your hobbies, storage or projects. With privacy, space, and natural beauty, this is a great opportunity priced below appraised value. Schedule a tour and start your adventure today!

3. 2026-03-02
   price $300,000 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Enjoy your own private retreat on over 13 scenic acres! Relax and take in gorgeous mountain views from this peaceful property that backs up to BLM land--perfect for those who love the outdoors. Just minutes from the Rogue River and nearby lakes, you can fish, explore, or simply unwind in nature's beauty. The property includes a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home and a convenient shop, offering room for your hobbies, storage or projects. With privacy, space, and natural beauty, this is a great opportunity priced below appraised value. Schedule a tour and start your adventure today!

4. 2026-02-19
   status Active 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Enjoy your own private retreat on over 13 scenic acres! Relax and take in gorgeous mountain views from this peaceful property that backs up to BLM land--perfect for those who love the outdoors. Just minutes from the Rogue River and nearby lakes, you can fish, explore, or simply unwind in nature's beauty. The property includes a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home and a convenient shop, offering room for your hobbies, storage or projects. With privacy, space, and natural beauty, this is a great opportunity priced below appraised value. Schedule a tour and start your adventure today!

5. 2026-02-10
   status Pending 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Enjoy your own private retreat on over 13 scenic acres! Relax and take in gorgeous mountain views from this peaceful property that backs up to BLM land--perfect for those who love the outdoors. Just minutes from the Rogue River and nearby lakes, you can fish, explore, or simply unwind in nature's beauty. The property includes a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home and a convenient shop, offering room for your hobbies, storage or projects. With privacy, space, and natural beauty, this is a great opportunity priced below appraised value. Schedule a tour and start your adventure today!

6. 2026-01-27
   price $334,000 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Enjoy your own private retreat on over 13 scenic acres! Relax and take in gorgeous mountain views from this peaceful property that backs up to BLM land--perfect for those who love the outdoors. Just minutes from the Rogue River and nearby lakes, you can fish, explore, or simply unwind in nature's beauty. The property includes a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home and a convenient shop, offering room for your hobbies, storage or projects. With privacy, space, and natural beauty, this is a great opportunity priced below appraised value. Schedule a tour and start your adventure today!

7. 2026-01-08
   price $339,000 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Enjoy your own private retreat on over 13 scenic acres! Relax and take in gorgeous mountain views from this peaceful property that backs up to BLM land--perfect for those who love the outdoors. Just minutes from the Rogue River and nearby lakes, you can fish, explore, or simply unwind in nature's beauty. The property includes a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home and a convenient shop, offering room for your hobbies, storage or projects. With privacy, space, and natural beauty, this is a great opportunity priced below appraised value. Schedule a tour and start your adventure today!

8. 2025-12-12
   listed $349,000 Active 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Enjoy your own private retreat on over 13 scenic acres! Relax and take in gorgeous mountain views from this peaceful property that backs up to BLM land--perfect for those who love the outdoors. Just minutes from the Rogue River and nearby lakes, you can fish, explore, or simply unwind in nature's beauty. The property includes a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home and a convenient shop, offering room for your hobbies, storage or projects. With privacy, space, and natural beauty, this is a great opportunity priced below appraised value. Schedule a tour and start your adventure today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,706 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,130/yr (+$94/mo · 71.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$1,576
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,989
• − Management: −$1,989
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$5,830
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,399
• After-tax cash flow: $514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle Point SD 9
• NCES district ID: 4104500
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,834
• Composite: 33.13/100
• National rank: #10630
• State rank: #134 of 183 in OR

Livability — Trail

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #25631

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D- Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,373

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.54%
• Current HPI: 454.6929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $279,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $285,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $300,000 MLSCO
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-02-10 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $334,000 MLSCO
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $339,000 MLSCO
• 2025-12-12 Listed $349,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,576 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.