12 Ocean Bay Blvd

Fire Island, NY 11770

$1,175,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,136/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,162
• Tax + insurance: −$1,276
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,289
• Net cashflow: $-2,590/mo
• Annual: $-31,080/yr
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.89%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $329,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.18M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $717k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $614k (47.8% below list).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.03M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $614k (47.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $126k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $118k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#812 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fire Island Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #44 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$202k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 0.7% in Fire Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?