12 Ocean Bay Blvd · Fire Island, NY 11770

$1,175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1960 5,000 sqft lot $1224/sqft · at area comps Est $1237k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy easy living at 12 Ocean Bay Blvd! Beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home in prime mid-block location in the heart of Ocean Bay Park. Ideally situated just a 2-minute walk from the beach and a 2-minute walk to the ferry, this home is beach living at its best. The sunny, renovated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a ceramic tile backsplash. If yellow cabinets aren't your vibe, the beautiful cabinetry can be painted the color of your choice. Both full bathrooms have also been completely renovated, or you have the option of using the outdoor shower. Ductless minisplit unit in the main living area will keep you cool and comfortable all summer long, and offers heating to allow use of the home deep into the Fall and early into the Spring seasons. Privacy abounds on the 50'x100' lot with lush greenery. All on one level, this home is truly low maintenance, with James Hardie cement siding, Trex decking, updated windows, and cedar paneled interiors. Affordable flood insurance only $1,859/year, low taxes only $4,753/year, and no HOA make this home a spectacular choice for your beach getaway or rental investment.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 155 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.18M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $717k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $614k (47.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $614k (47.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 0.7% in Fire Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#812 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fire Island Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #44 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $126k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $118k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$202k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.03M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $613,622 (47.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.89%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,236,741
• List price: $1,175,000
• Delta: -4.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Oneida St	0.12mi	4/2.5	992 (+3%)	8mo	$1,250,000	$1,260	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $474,653
• Equity at exit: $1,058,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $1,526,845
• Equity at exit: $2,282,767

Cash invested: $329,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11770

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,136 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,162
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,316/yr
• Insurance: −$490
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,289
• Net cashflow: $-2,590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,415

Max offer price $717,472

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $293,750
• Closing costs: $35,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Atlantic Ave Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.5	960	$7,500	$7.81	19d	1	0.75mi
896 Evergreen Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	960	$5,000	$5.21	44d	1	0.81mi
917 Evergreen Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.5	1108	$5,500	$4.96	44d	1	0.83mi
66 Bungalow Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1056	$40,000	$37.88	44d	1	0.98mi
317 Bay Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.5	1000	$7,000	$7.00	44d	1	0.99mi
40 Bungalow Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.5	1045	$5,500	$5.26	44d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $1,175,000 Pending 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,175,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,175,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,175,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,175,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,175,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,175,000 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-01-15
    listed $1,175,000 Active 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Enjoy easy living at 12 Ocean Bay Blvd! Beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home in prime mid-block location in the heart of Ocean Bay Park. Ideally situated just a 2-minute walk from the beach and a 2-minute walk to the ferry, this home is beach living at its best. The sunny, renovated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a ceramic tile backsplash. If yellow cabinets aren't your vibe, the beautiful cabinetry can be painted the color of your choice. Both full bathrooms have also been completely renovated, or you have the option of using the outdoor shower. Ductless minisplit unit in the main living area will keep you cool and comfortable all summer long, and offers heating to allow use of the home deep into the Fall and early into the Spring seasons. Privacy abounds on the 50'x100' lot with lush greenery. All on one level, this home is truly low maintenance, with James Hardie cement siding, Trex decking, updated windows, and cedar paneled interiors. Affordable flood insurance only $1,859/year, low taxes only $4,753/year, and no HOA make this home a spectacular choice for your beach getaway or rental investment.

17. 2026-01-14
    historical $1,175,000 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    Enjoy easy living at 12 Ocean Bay Blvd! Beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home in prime mid-block location in the heart of Ocean Bay Park. Ideally situated just a 2-minute walk from the beach and a 2-minute walk to the ferry, this home is beach living at its best. The sunny, renovated kitchen features stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a ceramic tile backsplash. If yellow cabinets aren't your vibe, the beautiful cabinetry can be painted the color of your choice. Both full bathrooms have also been completely renovated, or you have the option of using the outdoor shower. Ductless minisplit unit in the main living area will keep you cool and comfortable all summer long, and offers heating to allow use of the home deep into the Fall and early into the Spring seasons. Privacy abounds on the 50'x100' lot with lush greenery. All on one level, this home is truly low maintenance, with James Hardie cement siding, Trex decking, updated windows, and cedar paneled interiors. Affordable flood insurance only $1,859/year, low taxes only $4,753/year, and no HOA make this home a spectacular choice for your beach getaway or rental investment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,316 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,087 · $1,007/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,771/yr (+$648/mo · 180.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$65,818
• − Property taxes: −$4,316
• − Insurance: −$10,994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,891
• − Management: −$5,891
• − Depreciation: −$34,182
• Taxable loss: −$53,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,829
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fire Island Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621540
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 90% ▲ 40.00%
• Median HH income: $69,449
• Composite: 71.53/100
• National rank: #222
• State rank: #44 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fire Island

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #812
• US rank: #15735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety B User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fire Island, NY
• City population: 124
• Population (ZIP): 124

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 48% Two or more races 27%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 56% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.28%
• Current HPI: 575.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $1,175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Coming Soon $1,175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,316 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.