3383 Marsden Pt

Rivanna, VA 22947

$899,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,214 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,560/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$893
• HOA: −$140
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-3,725/mo
• Annual: $-44,694/yr
• Cap rate: 1.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.76%
• DSCR: 0.21
• 1% rule: 0.28%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-45k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (73.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (71.5% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($791k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (73.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#343 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Stone Robinson Elementary (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 473 students, 31% FRL); Jackson P. Burley Middle (math 59% / reading 71%, grade A-, #120 of 342 statewide, top 35%, 586 students, 45% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $86k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 2.3% in Rivanna — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 73% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.