3383 Marsden Pt · Rivanna, VA 22947

$899,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,214 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1994 0.53 ac lot $280/sqft · 21% above area Est $974k · 8% under $140/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location in Glenmore. End of the cul de sac with a beautiful backyard - private and spacious! Close to the Glenmore golf course and an easy walk to the Carroll Creek Nature trails. Over 4,000 s. f. - beautiful wood floor, granite counters in the kitchen, oversized bonus room above the spacious 2 car garage, finished basement. Great price - Enjoy The Glenmore Lifestyle!

Key facts

• Cul de sac
• Oversized bonus room
• Glenmore golf course

Tags

• CUL DE SAC
• BEAUTIFUL BACKYARD
• GLENMORE GOLF COURSE
• CARROLL CREEK NATURE TRAILS
• OVERSIZED BONUS ROOM
• FINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $899k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-45k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (73.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (71.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (73.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 2.3% in Rivanna — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#343 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Stone Robinson Elementary (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 473 students, 31% FRL); Jackson P. Burley Middle (math 59% / reading 71%, grade A-, #120 of 342 statewide, top 35%, 586 students, 45% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($791k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $86k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,051 (73.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 73% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.28% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.76%
• DSCR: 0.21
• GRM: 29.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $974,403
• List price: $899,000
• Delta: -7.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3371 Cotswold Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	3,280 (+2%)	7mo	$740,000	$226	85
3402 Cotswold Ln	0.11mi	4/3.5	3,291 (+2%)	7mo	$899,000	$273	81
3402 Cesford Grange	0.22mi	4/2.5	3,215 (0%)	13mo	$810,000	$252	79
3359 Marsden Pt	0.07mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,597 (+12%)	6mo	$1,068,725	$297	64
1526 Bremerton Ln	0.43mi	4/3.5	3,030 (-6%)	6mo	$799,000	$264	61
3504 Wedgewood Ct	0.40mi	4/3.5	3,009 (-6%)	10mo	$765,000	$254	59
3460 Devon Pnes	0.55mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,191 (-1%)	10mo	$740,000	$232	58
3515 Devon Pnes	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,103 (-4%)	12mo	$885,000	$285	54
1500 Perth Ct	0.54mi	4/4.5	3,528 (+10%)	0mo	$1,225,200	$347	50
431 Fenton Ct	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,586 (+12%)	12mo	$1,049,000	$293	45
407 Fenton Ct	0.41mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,821 (-12%)	11mo	$950,000	$337	42
1430 Piper Way	0.61mi	4/3.5	3,595 (+12%)	9mo	$967,100	$269	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -51.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-383,140
• Equity at exit: $134,044

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.54×
• Total profit: $-640,090
• Equity at exit: $77,729

Cash invested: $251,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22947

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 29.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,216/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-3,725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,275

Max offer price $241,051

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,216	-5% $-3,470	+0% $-3,725	+5% $-3,979	+10% $-4,233
Rent	-10% $-3,927	-5% $-3,826	+0% $-3,725	+5% $-3,623	+10% $-3,522
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,272	-0.5pp $-3,496	base $-3,725	+0.5pp $-3,957	+1.0pp $-4,194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,750
• Closing costs: $26,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $899,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $899,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $899,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $899,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $899,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $899,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $899,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $899,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $899,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $899,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $899,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $899,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $899,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $899,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $899,000 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $899,000 Active 111 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $899,000 Active 110 DOM
18. 2026-04-17
    price $925,000 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    Great location in Glenmore. End of the cul de sac with a beautiful backyard - private and spacious! Close to the Glenmore golf course and an easy walk to the Carroll Creek Nature trails. Over 4,000 s. f. - beautiful wood floor, granite counters in the kitchen, oversized bonus room above the spacious 2 car garage, finished basement. Great price - Enjoy The Glenmore Lifestyle!

19. 2026-03-25
    price $949,000 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    Great location in Glenmore. End of the cul de sac with a beautiful backyard - private and spacious! Close to the Glenmore golf course and an easy walk to the Carroll Creek Nature trails. Over 4,000 s. f. - beautiful wood floor, granite counters in the kitchen, oversized bonus room above the spacious 2 car garage, finished basement. Great price - Enjoy The Glenmore Lifestyle!

20. 2026-02-09
    listed $985,000 Active 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    Great location in Glenmore. End of the cul de sac with a beautiful backyard - private and spacious! Close to the Glenmore golf course and an easy walk to the Carroll Creek Nature trails. Over 4,000 s. f. - beautiful wood floor, granite counters in the kitchen, oversized bonus room above the spacious 2 car garage, finished basement. Great price - Enjoy The Glenmore Lifestyle!

21. 2003-05-30
    listed $499,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,216 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,372 · $614/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,156/yr (+$96/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,358
• − Property taxes: −$6,216
• − Insurance: −$4,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,458
• − Management: −$2,458
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$26,153
• Taxable loss: −$63,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15,143
• After-tax cash flow: $-29,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rivanna

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #13658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rivanna, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,201

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.71%
• Current HPI: 240.3797
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+85.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $925,000 CAAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $949,000 CAAR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $985,000 CAAR
• 2003-05-30 Listed $499,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,216 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.