2830 River Juniper Ln

Crosby, TX 77532

$338,328F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,246 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 182 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,774
• Tax + insurance: −$564
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-690/mo
• Annual: $-8,285/yr
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.75%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $94,732

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $338k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-690 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (36.0% below list).
• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1723 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 95d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.