2830 River Juniper Ln · Crosby, TX 77532

$338,328

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,246 sqft · SingleFamily · 182 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 6,600 sqft lot $151/sqft · 8% below area Est $367k · 8% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Sundance Cove in Crosby, Texas—a peaceful lakeside community offering the best of quiet rural living just minutes from Lake Houston and downtown amenities. This beautiful new single-story Arpa plan offers 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and an exceptional indoor-outdoor connection w/an expansive eight-foot sliding glass door. The modern kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, elegant granite countertops, and tall 42" custom cabinetry providing generous storage. Open living spaces feature premium laminate flooring for a sophisticated look, paired with easy-care tile in bathrooms and utility areas. The owner’s suite includes a large walk-in closet, a luxurious super shower with a built-in bench, and separate dual vanities. Extend your living outdoors on the generous covered patio—ideal for relaxing or entertaining year-round. Brand-new construction with expected completion in Spring 2026. Don’t miss this opportunity in one of Crosby’s most desirable new communities!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Lakeside community
• Granite countertops

Tags

• LAKESIDE COMMUNITY
• INDOOR-OUTDOOR CONNECTION
• EXPANSIVE SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $338k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-690 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (29.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1723 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 95d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,548 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.75%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,780
• List price: $338,328
• Delta: -7.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3003 Troubadour Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	2,383 (+6%)	1mo	$374,490	$157	76
18802 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,371 (+6%)	5mo	$356,180	$150	68
18814 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,551 (+14%)	3mo	$384,990	$151	60
18702 Durango Plains Trl	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,136 (-5%)	6mo	$309,990	$145	59
18606 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,581 (+15%)	3mo	$419,990	$163	59
18638 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.21mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,572 (+14%)	3mo	$364,990	$142	58
18602 Redford Springs Ct	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,073 (-8%)	6mo	$289,000	$139	55
18726 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,581 (+15%)	4mo	$388,890	$151	55
18510 Belle Cote Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,972 (-12%)	3mo	$340,000	$172	54
2419 Elliot Canyon Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,136 (-5%)	7mo	$319,990	$150	52
18830 Eastwood Ridge Ct	0.35mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,572 (+14%)	4mo	$352,640	$137	51
18408 Old Galley Way	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,549 (+14%)	1mo	$510,000	$200	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-101,986
• Equity at exit: $50,446

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-158,121
• Equity at exit: $29,252

Cash invested: $94,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 84 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.3 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $331,495 ($142/sqft)
• Median days on market: 164 d
• This list price: 51% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1723
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,774
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$423 /mo · $5,075/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,039

Max offer price $238,429

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-457	-5% $-573	+0% $-690	+5% $-807	+10% $-924
Rent	-10% $-861	-5% $-776	+0% $-690	+5% $-605	+10% $-519
Rate	-1.0pp $-520	-0.5pp $-604	base $-690	+0.5pp $-778	+1.0pp $-867

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,582
• Closing costs: $10,150
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3310 Indian Mound Trl Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,795	$0.99	94d	1	0.34mi
3310 Indian Mound Trl Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,650	$0.91	18d	1	0.34mi
18707 Antler Trails Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2547	$2,361	$0.93	120d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $338,328 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $338,328 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $338,328 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $338,328 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $338,328 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $338,328 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $338,328 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $338,328 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $338,328 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $338,328 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $338,328 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $338,328 Active 171 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $338,328 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $338,328 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $338,328 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $338,328 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $338,328 Active 160 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $338,328 Active 158 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $338,328 Active 156 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $338,328 Active 155 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $338,328 Active 154 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $338,328 Active 152 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $338,328 Active 151 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $338,328 Active 150 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $338,328 Active 149 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $338,328 Active 148 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $338,328 Active 147 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $338,328 Active 146 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $338,328 Active 145 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $338,328 Active 144 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $338,328 Active 143 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $338,328 Active 142 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $338,328 Active 141 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $338,328 Active 140 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $338,328 Active 139 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $338,328 Active 138 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $338,328 Active 137 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $338,328 Active 136 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $338,328 Active 135 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $338,328 Active 133 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $338,328 Active 132 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $338,328 Active 131 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $338,328 Active 130 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $338,328 Active 127 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $338,328 Active 126 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $338,328 Active 125 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $338,328 Active 124 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $338,328 Active 122 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $338,328 Active 120 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $338,328 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,952
• − Property taxes: −$5,075
• − Insurance: −$1,692
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,079
• − Management: −$2,079
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$9,842
• Taxable loss: −$14,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, good natural light, and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some minor updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting ↑
• Rental Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring can improve the rental experience and attract tenants ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the front of the house — Landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract both buyers and renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $338,328 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $338,328 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $359,923 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $386,923 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $376,367 HARMLS