8653 Mallard Reserve Dr #201

Egypt Lake-Leto, FL 33614

$95,100D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 581 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$499
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$377
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-296/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $26,628

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-296/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (4.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crestwood Elementary School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 781 students, 74% FRL); Pierce Middle School (math 35% / reading 32%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 845 students, 72% FRL); Leto High School (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,062 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.