8653 Mallard Reserve Dr #201 · Egypt Lake-Leto, FL 33614

$95,100

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 581 sqft · Condo public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1988 $377/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!!! Charming 1-Bed/1-Bath condo in Grand Reserve, and established and well maintained community. This stunning home offers carpet flooring throughout and the kitchen has lots of counter and cabinet space. Living Room has plenty of natural light coming through the balcony perfect for relaxing and quiet time. Beautiful, quiet community with tennis courts, pool, and fitness facility. Call today for a private showing.

Key facts

• $377 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1988

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-296/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (4.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crestwood Elementary School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 781 students, 74% FRL); Pierce Middle School (math 35% / reading 32%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 845 students, 72% FRL); Leto High School (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,062 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,541 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-20,526
• Equity at exit: $14,180

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-33,540
• Equity at exit: $8,223

Cash invested: $26,628 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33614

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$499
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,619/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$377
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,329

Max offer price $90,739

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $2	+0% $-25	+5% $-52	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-76	+0% $-25	+5% $27	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-1	base $-25	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,775
• Closing costs: $2,853
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8603 Fancy Finch Dr Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	581	$1,200	$2.07	20d	1	0.15mi
8602 Champlain Ct Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,225	$1.73	13d	1	0.21mi
3832 N Lake Dr #116 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	682	$1,600	$2.35	1d	1	0.22mi
8534 Channelview Cir Unit 8534 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,295	$2.25	20d	1	0.24mi
8534 Channelview Cir Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,295	$2.25	5d	1	0.24mi
8602 Champlain Ct #88 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,225	$1.73	22d	1	0.25mi
8605 Huron Ct #34 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,500	$2.11	3d	1	0.32mi
8730 N Himes Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,156	$1.41	17d	15	0.62mi
8433 Sycamore Tree Dr Apt 201 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,200	$1.69	16d	1	0.71mi
3516 Grand Cayman Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,397	$1.44	0d	169	0.79mi
4747 W Waters Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,515	$1.35	1d	33	0.82mi
4107 Chatham Oak Ct #307 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	738	$1,250	$1.69	7d	1	0.87mi
4211 Chatham Oak Ct Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	665	$1,472	$2.21	1d	3	0.89mi
8421 Del Lago Cir Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	1012	$1,797	$1.77	0d	1	0.93mi
10114 Winsford Oak Blvd #525 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	738	$1,450	$1.96	26d	1	0.94mi
8781 White Swan Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,311	$1.69	1d	15	1.04mi
4302 Gunn Hwy Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$1,399	$1.71	1d	12	1.05mi
10453 Carrollbrook Cir Tampa, FL	—	1.0	543	$1,195	$2.20	5d	1	1.18mi
3445 Carlton Arms Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	875	$1,171	$1.34	1d	23	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $377 · $4,524/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,100 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,100 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,100 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,100 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,100 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,100 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,100 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $95,100 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    price $115,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!!! Charming 1-Bed/1-Bath condo in Grand Reserve, and established and well maintained community. This stunning home offers carpet flooring throughout and the kitchen has lots of counter and cabinet space. Living Room has plenty of natural light coming through the balcony perfect for relaxing and quiet time. Beautiful, quiet community with tennis courts, pool, and fitness facility. Call today for a private showing.

18. 2026-03-18
    status Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!!! Charming 1-Bed/1-Bath condo in Grand Reserve, and established and well maintained community. This stunning home offers carpet flooring throughout and the kitchen has lots of counter and cabinet space. Living Room has plenty of natural light coming through the balcony perfect for relaxing and quiet time. Beautiful, quiet community with tennis courts, pool, and fitness facility. Call today for a private showing.

19. 2026-03-17
    listed $99,900 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!!! Charming 1-Bed/1-Bath condo in Grand Reserve, and established and well maintained community. This stunning home offers carpet flooring throughout and the kitchen has lots of counter and cabinet space. Living Room has plenty of natural light coming through the balcony perfect for relaxing and quiet time. Beautiful, quiet community with tennis courts, pool, and fitness facility. Call today for a private showing.

20. 2024-10-08
    historical $1,145
21. 2024-09-21
    listed $1,145
22. 2021-08-24
    soldstatus $76,000
23. 2016-11-28
    soldstatus $42,000 Sold 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    LOVELY ONE BEDROOM CLOSE TO THE RESORT STYLE POOL, OUTDOOR SPA, GYM AND LAUNDRY ROOM. ASSIGNED PARKING WITH PLENTY OF GUESS PARKING AND THE COMMUNITY IS GATED FOR PRIVACY

24. 2016-11-28
    soldstatus $42,000

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    LOVELY ONE BEDROOM CLOSE TO THE RESORT STYLE POOL, OUTDOOR SPA, GYM AND LAUNDRY ROOM. ASSIGNED PARKING WITH PLENTY OF GUESS PARKING AND THE COMMUNITY IS GATED FOR PRIVACY

25. 2016-10-11
    status Pending 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    LOVELY ONE BEDROOM CLOSE TO THE RESORT STYLE POOL, OUTDOOR SPA, GYM AND LAUNDRY ROOM. ASSIGNED PARKING WITH PLENTY OF GUESS PARKING AND THE COMMUNITY IS GATED FOR PRIVACY

26. 2016-09-14
    price $41,900 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    LOVELY ONE BEDROOM CLOSE TO THE RESORT STYLE POOL, OUTDOOR SPA, GYM AND LAUNDRY ROOM. ASSIGNED PARKING WITH PLENTY OF GUESS PARKING AND THE COMMUNITY IS GATED FOR PRIVACY

27. 2016-09-03
    listed $44,000 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    LOVELY ONE BEDROOM CLOSE TO THE RESORT STYLE POOL, OUTDOOR SPA, GYM AND LAUNDRY ROOM. ASSIGNED PARKING WITH PLENTY OF GUESS PARKING AND THE COMMUNITY IS GATED FOR PRIVACY

28. 2012-11-29
    soldstatus $27,500
29. 2012-11-26
    soldstatus $27,500
30. 2011-11-09
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,619 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,619 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,327
• − Property taxes: −$1,619
• − Insurance: −$476
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − HOA: −$4,524
• − Depreciation: −$2,767
• Taxable loss: −$1,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$390
• After-tax cash flow: $94/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Egypt Lake-Leto

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Egypt Lake-Leto, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 47,298
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,298
• Household income: $50,232
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3363.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 37% White 18% Black 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 32% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 44% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 58% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.33%
• Current HPI: 498.3567
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.24%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+360.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-08 Rental Removed $1,145 RENT.
• 2024-09-21 Listed for Rent $1,145 RENT.
• 2021-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-28 Sold (MLS) $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-14 Price Changed $41,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-03 Listed $44,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 2012-11-26 Sold (MLS) $27,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-09 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,619 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.