1206 Ky-1809

Barbourville, KY 40921

$169,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 305 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,054/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-245/mo
• Annual: $-2,935/yr
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.20%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (37.6% below list).
• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#284 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Knox County (town): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #116 of 165 in KY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.
• Knox County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $135k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.1% in Barbourville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.