1206 Ky-1809 · Barbourville, KY 40921

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 305 Days on market

Built 1979 6,970 sqft lot $104/sqft · 21% below area Est $203k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated sellers! This 2 bedroom 1 bath 1536 sq ft home is just 7 miles from Barbourville. The third bedroom was converted to a laundry room but could be converted back. The primary bedroom has three closets that provide for great storage. There is one bathroom but has two sinks, a nice shower and a linen closet. There is a roomy concrete patio in the back and small yard for little maintenance but great privacy. The storage shed and the freezer will not convey. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Three closets
• Laundry room
• Storage shed

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM
• THREE CLOSETS
• TWO SINKS
• ROOMY CONCRETE PATIO
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (37.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.1% in Barbourville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#284 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Knox County (town): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #116 of 165 in KY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Knox County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,415 (37.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.20%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,332
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -16.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,740
• Equity at exit: $75,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $38,679
• Equity at exit: $117,109

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40921

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,448/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $125,791

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,000 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 296 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 295 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 294 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 287 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 286 DOM
16. 2025-10-30
    price $169,000 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Motivated sellers! This 2 bedroom 1 bath 1536 sq ft home is just 7 miles from Barbourville. The third bedroom was converted to a laundry room but could be converted back. The primary bedroom has three closets that provide for great storage. There is one bathroom but has two sinks, a nice shower and a linen closet. There is a roomy concrete patio in the back and small yard for little maintenance but great privacy. The storage shed and the freezer will not convey. Schedule your private showing today!

17. 2025-08-16
    listed $179,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Motivated sellers! This 2 bedroom 1 bath 1536 sq ft home is just 7 miles from Barbourville. The third bedroom was converted to a laundry room but could be converted back. The primary bedroom has three closets that provide for great storage. There is one bathroom but has two sinks, a nice shower and a linen closet. There is a roomy concrete patio in the back and small yard for little maintenance but great privacy. The storage shed and the freezer will not convey. Schedule your private showing today!

18. 2024-06-03
    soldstatus $135,000
19. 2002-05-01
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,453 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$5/yr ($0/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,448
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,012
• − Management: −$1,012
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$6,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,452
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Knox County
• NCES district ID: 2103150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $24,965
• Composite: 24.59/100
• National rank: #7636
• State rank: #116 of 165 in KY

Livability — Barbourville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #13792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 129

Population outlook (Knox County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,741 people
• By 2030: 29,887 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 27,940 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 25,826 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 20,895 · -32.0%
• By 2100: 16,238 · -47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Knox

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.1) · D 13.8% · R 85.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -71.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.1 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.7 2012: R+53.9 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+196.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $169,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-16 Listed $179,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,448 · +93.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.