1106 Arbour Verde Ct

Lake Magdalene, FL 33613

$309,900D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 2021 · Townhouse · Pending · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,584/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax + insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$225
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $2/mo
• Annual: $28/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $86,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($28/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (16.6% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#361 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maniscalco K-8 School (math 60% / reading 58%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 646 students, 43% FRL); Buchanan Middle School (math 35% / reading 32%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 759 students, 73% FRL); Gaither High School (math 30% / reading 48%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,123 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,584/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.