1106 Arbour Verde Ct · Lake Magdalene, FL 33613

$309,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Townhouse public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2021 1,900 sqft lot $225/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the gated Bearss Landing community, a beautiful and spacious three bedrooms, two full baths, half bath on the first level and one-car garage in Carrollwood area is waiting for you to call home! The home has been updated with laminate wood design flooring throughout the second level. Loft area is suitable for workspace, the organized shelving in the laundry room keeps it tidy. Maintenance-free living and resort-style pool with cabanas and covered lanai make a great place to have parties or gathering with close friends. Easy access to I-275, providing short proximity to downtown Tampa’s restaurants, Amalie Arena, Tampa International Airport, and top-rated schools make this a great home location. No CDD here with low HOA fees. Call to schedule your appointment to view this beautiful townhome!

Key facts

• Large master suite
• Versatile loft area
• Two story townhome

Tags

• TWO STORY TOWNHOME
• LIGHT FILLED LIVING AREA
• ATTACHED ONE CAR GARAGE
• LARGE MASTER SUITE
• VERSATILE LOFT AREA
• LAMINATE WOOD LOOK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($28/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#361 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maniscalco K-8 School (math 60% / reading 58%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 646 students, 43% FRL); Buchanan Middle School (math 35% / reading 32%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 759 students, 73% FRL); Gaither High School (math 30% / reading 48%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,123 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,584/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,357 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-57,667
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-79,386
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33613

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $713/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$225
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $309,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $90	+0% $2	+5% $-85	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-100	+0% $2	+5% $104	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $81	base $2	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1102 Arbour Verde Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	2020	$2,645	$1.31	22d	1	0.04mi
15050 Blue Quaker Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1631	$2,700	$1.66	26d	1	0.04mi
1011 Orchard Arbour Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	2106	$2,950	$1.40	23d	1	0.06mi
1011 Orchard Arbour Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	2106	$2,900	$1.38	26d	1	0.06mi
15330 Winding Creek Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1888	$3,500	$1.85	26d	1	0.27mi
814 Settlers Rd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,200	$1.56	23d	1	0.39mi
14919 Old Pointe Rd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,800	$1.67	26d	1	0.44mi
703 Regency Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$2,700	$1.77	26d	1	0.86mi
16406 Lake Byrd Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	2227	$2,975	$1.34	22d	1	1.03mi
14009 Dominion Ct Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	2006	$3,500	$1.74	19d	1	1.04mi
2704 Clark Rd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1525	$1,620	$1.06	23d	1	1.26mi
2814 Cedaridge Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1495	$2,599	$1.74	6d	1	1.36mi
2549 Cedar Cypress Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1190	$1,600	$1.34	26d	1	1.38mi
13735 Juniper Blossom Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1190	$1,750	$1.47	23d	1	1.44mi
13698 Orange Sunset Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,620	$1.49	6d	1	1.44mi
14350 Ambrosia St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,385	$2.40	1d	17	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $225 · $2,700/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-11-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-17
   price $309,900
3. 2025-11-05
   price $314,900
4. 2025-11-03
   price $319,900
5. 2025-10-29
   price $325,000
6. 2025-10-08
   price $329,000
7. 2025-09-29
   price $355,000
8. 2025-09-23
   listed $365,000 Active
9. 2023-06-26
   soldstatus $375,000
10. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus $388,000 Closed 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Located in the gated Bearss Landing community, a beautiful and spacious three bedrooms, two full baths, half bath on the first level and one-car garage in Carrollwood area is waiting for you to call home! The home has been updated with laminate wood design flooring throughout the second level. Loft area is suitable for workspace, the organized shelving in the laundry room keeps it tidy. Maintenance-free living and resort-style pool with cabanas and covered lanai make a great place to have parties or gathering with close friends. Easy access to I-275, providing short proximity to downtown Tampa’s restaurants, Amalie Arena, Tampa International Airport, and top-rated schools make this a great home location. No CDD here with low HOA fees. Call to schedule your appointment to view this beautiful townhome!

11. 2023-05-03
    status Pending 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Located in the gated Bearss Landing community, a beautiful and spacious three bedrooms, two full baths, half bath on the first level and one-car garage in Carrollwood area is waiting for you to call home! The home has been updated with laminate wood design flooring throughout the second level. Loft area is suitable for workspace, the organized shelving in the laundry room keeps it tidy. Maintenance-free living and resort-style pool with cabanas and covered lanai make a great place to have parties or gathering with close friends. Easy access to I-275, providing short proximity to downtown Tampa’s restaurants, Amalie Arena, Tampa International Airport, and top-rated schools make this a great home location. No CDD here with low HOA fees. Call to schedule your appointment to view this beautiful townhome!

12. 2023-04-12
    price $385,000 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Located in the gated Bearss Landing community, a beautiful and spacious three bedrooms, two full baths, half bath on the first level and one-car garage in Carrollwood area is waiting for you to call home! The home has been updated with laminate wood design flooring throughout the second level. Loft area is suitable for workspace, the organized shelving in the laundry room keeps it tidy. Maintenance-free living and resort-style pool with cabanas and covered lanai make a great place to have parties or gathering with close friends. Easy access to I-275, providing short proximity to downtown Tampa’s restaurants, Amalie Arena, Tampa International Airport, and top-rated schools make this a great home location. No CDD here with low HOA fees. Call to schedule your appointment to view this beautiful townhome!

13. 2023-03-21
    listed $389,000 Active 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Located in the gated Bearss Landing community, a beautiful and spacious three bedrooms, two full baths, half bath on the first level and one-car garage in Carrollwood area is waiting for you to call home! The home has been updated with laminate wood design flooring throughout the second level. Loft area is suitable for workspace, the organized shelving in the laundry room keeps it tidy. Maintenance-free living and resort-style pool with cabanas and covered lanai make a great place to have parties or gathering with close friends. Easy access to I-275, providing short proximity to downtown Tampa’s restaurants, Amalie Arena, Tampa International Airport, and top-rated schools make this a great home location. No CDD here with low HOA fees. Call to schedule your appointment to view this beautiful townhome!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $713 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,572 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,859/yr (+$155/mo · 260.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$713
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − HOA: −$2,700
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$5,295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,271
• After-tax cash flow: $1,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Magdalene

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #361
• US rank: #6328

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Magdalene, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 27,588
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,591
• Household income: $44,032
• Rent vs Own: 68.1% rent · 31.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4426.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 18% Two or more races 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 28% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.59%
• Current HPI: 367.4057
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $314,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $319,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $329,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Listed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-26 Sold (MLS) $388,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-12 Price Changed $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-21 Listed $389,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $713 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.