4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,766 sqft ·
Built 1912
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 271 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,416/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$316
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$507
Net cashflow
$596/mo
Annual
$7,155/yr
Cap rate
10.06%
Cash-on-cash
13.46%
DSCR
1.60
1% rule
1.27%
Cash to close
$53,172
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $120k; list at $190k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
At $2,416/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 841% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-29CTAV46GNG414
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29