3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,612 sqft ·
Built 2019
· Manufactured
· Active
· 154 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,052/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$316
HOA
−$15
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$431
Net cashflow
$451/mo
Annual
$5,412/yr
Cap rate
9.68%
Cash-on-cash
12.08%
DSCR
1.54
1% rule
1.28%
Cash to close
$44,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#46 in FL, #867 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D-.
Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 29% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,962 of 2,144 statewide, top 92%, 636 students, 83% FRL); Campbell Middle School (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #479 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 855 students, 80% FRL); Mainland High School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,855 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 51% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Volusia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-29DTK70E6N1S9C
· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29