454 Suffolk Dr

Ferris, TX 75125

$335,900F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,013 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 176 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,157/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,761
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-274/mo
• Annual: $-3,291/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $94,052

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $336k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (35.8% below list).
• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#401 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.4% in Ferris — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.