454 Suffolk Dr · Ferris, TX 75125

$335,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,013 sqft · Land · 176 Days on market

Built 2025 $167/sqft · at area comps Est $320k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY! Welcome to the winning Geneva plan! This thoughtfully designed plan opens with a foyer leading past two generous bedrooms flanking a bath. The hall opens up into an airy, sunlit space, showcasing a kitchen, a dining area, and a great room. A large primary suite is adjacent, boasting a walk-in closet and an attached bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower! Conveniently located near I-45, Ferris offers a short drive to economic, entertainment and cultural hubs across the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area—plus local attractions, such as restaurants, shops, and year-round community events. You’ll love a charming small-town atmosphere that's only 20 miles from urban amenities in downtown Dallas!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 175 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $336k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.4% in Ferris — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#401 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $215,716 (35.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,968
• List price: $335,900
• Delta: 4.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-72,078
• Equity at exit: $50,084

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-85,982
• Equity at exit: $29,042

Cash invested: $94,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75125

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,761
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $924/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,504

Max offer price $287,447

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,975
• Closing costs: $10,077
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
485 Norfolk Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,275	$1.28	21d	1	0.26mi
111 S Wood St Unit B Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$1,700	$0.77	44d	1	0.34mi
100 Clark Dr Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,025	$1.12	5d	1	0.64mi
860 Newport Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	3.0	2082	$2,395	$1.15	2d	1	0.66mi
215 Clark Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,100	$1.24	22d	1	0.79mi
704 N Church St Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,300	$1.55	7d	1	0.80mi
309 Jennie Marie Cir Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	1775	$1,999	$1.13	15d	1	0.81mi
309 Jennie Marie Cir Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	1775	$1,999	$1.13	44d	1	0.81mi
308 Micah Ln Ferris, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,325	$0.90	1d	1	0.89mi
808 Clark Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.5	2153	$2,379	$1.10	24d	1	0.94mi
833 Serena Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,500	$1.37	1d	1	0.96mi
841 Serena Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.5	2153	$2,395	$1.11	1d	1	0.97mi
206 S Meadow Dr Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2206	$8,950	$4.06	22d	1	0.98mi
206 S Meadow Dr Unit 1520042P Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2195	$12,712	$5.79	22d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,900 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   days on marketlisting id $335,900 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,900 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,900 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,900 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $335,900 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $335,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $335,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $335,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-01-14
    price $335,900 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! Welcome to the winning Geneva plan! This thoughtfully designed plan opens with a foyer leading past two generous bedrooms flanking a bath. The hall opens up into an airy, sunlit space, showcasing a kitchen, a dining area, and a great room. A large primary suite is adjacent, boasting a walk-in closet and an attached bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower! Conveniently located near I-45, Ferris offers a short drive to economic, entertainment and cultural hubs across the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area—plus local attractions, such as restaurants, shops, and year-round community events. You’ll love a charming small-town atmosphere that's only 20 miles from urban amenities in downtown Dallas!

15. 2026-01-13
    price $337,900 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! Welcome to the winning Geneva plan! This thoughtfully designed plan opens with a foyer leading past two generous bedrooms flanking a bath. The hall opens up into an airy, sunlit space, showcasing a kitchen, a dining area, and a great room. A large primary suite is adjacent, boasting a walk-in closet and an attached bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower! Conveniently located near I-45, Ferris offers a short drive to economic, entertainment and cultural hubs across the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area—plus local attractions, such as restaurants, shops, and year-round community events. You’ll love a charming small-town atmosphere that's only 20 miles from urban amenities in downtown Dallas!

16. 2026-01-10
    listed $335,900 Active 723-char remark

    Show marketing remark (723 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! Welcome to the winning Geneva plan! This thoughtfully designed plan opens with a foyer leading past two generous bedrooms flanking a bath. The hall opens up into an airy, sunlit space, showcasing a kitchen, a dining area, and a great room. A large primary suite is adjacent, boasting a walk-in closet and an attached bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower! Conveniently located near I-45, Ferris offers a short drive to economic, entertainment and cultural hubs across the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area—plus local attractions, such as restaurants, shops, and year-round community events. You’ll love a charming small-town atmosphere that's only 20 miles from urban amenities in downtown Dallas!

17. 2025-12-22
    listed $335,900 Active 984-char remark

    Show marketing remark (984 chars)

    Welcome to the winning Geneva plan! This thoughtfully designed plan opens with a foyer leading past two generous bedrooms flanking a bath. The hall opens up into an airy, sunlit space, showcasing a kitchen, a dining area, and a great room. A large primary suite is adjacent, boasting a walk-in closet and an attached bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. * Prices, plans, and terms are effective on the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Square footage/dimensions shown is only an estimate and actual square footage/dimensions will differ. Buyer should rely on his or her own evaluation of usable area. Depictions of homes or other features are artist conceptions. Hardscape, landscape, and other items shown may be decorator suggestions that are not included in the purchase price and availability may vary. No view is promised. Views may also be altered by subsequent development, construction, and landscaping growth. ©2025 Century Communities, Inc

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $924 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,147 · $512/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,223/yr (+$435/mo · 565.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,816
• − Property taxes: −$924
• − Insurance: −$1,680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − Depreciation: −$9,772
• Taxable loss: −$9,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,267
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819170
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $53,468
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7486
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ferris

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #8294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,154

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% White 32% Two or more races 25% Black 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.54%
• Current HPI: 243.4525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $335,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $337,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $335,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $335,900 Zillow