110 Dawn Dr

Howardwick, TX 79226

$185,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,047/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $-310/mo
• Annual: $-3,725/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (43.4% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,173 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarendon ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #175 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clarendon El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 215 students, 61% FRL); Clarendon J H (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 88 students, 56% FRL); Clarendon H S (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 131 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Donley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Donley County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.